AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |
Back to Blog
![]() ![]() This led JMart to text us with this intriguing POV: “Strikingly, half of Haley’s supporters identify as either independents (39%) or Democrats (11%) - significantly different from the poll’s overall makeup, which stands at 69% Republicans, 23% independents and 5% Democrats among likely GOP caucusgoers.” One other note on Haley: Jonathan Martin flagged this graf from the NBC News write-up of the poll about Haley’s coalition: Not finishing second to Trump will now be seen as a major disappointment. Selzer said those enthusiasm numbers for Haley “are on the edge of jaw-dropping” and “at odds with a candidate moving up.”ĭespite all of this, the fact that Haley is in the number two spot in the poll means her biggest obstacle tomorrow is heightened expectations. Selzer was particularly surprised at the enthusiasm gap between Haley’s voters and Trump’s voters: Only 39% of Haley’s voters were “extremely enthusiastic” or “very enthusiastic,” while that number was 89% for Trump’s voters. “The deep data on suggest she looks stronger in the poll than she could on caucus night,” Selzer told the paper, adding that despite the headline of a Haley second place, “most of the rest of the data here is not good news.” Unlike Santorum and Cruz, the internals on Haley are not suggestive of a late surge that will continue to rise through tomorrow night. Haley is on “shaky ground” Selzer told the Register. Under the hood, those polls hinted that Santorum and Cruz, powered by the crucial Iowa evangelical vote, were still rising and were the late-moving candidates to watch.īut last night, ANN SELZER, the highly respected pollster who conducts the survey, went out of her way to make it clear that Haley, despite popping into second place, is not in a similar situation. In 2016, the final DMR poll showed Trump with the lead, but TED CRUZ won. In 2012, the final DMR poll showed MITT ROMNEY on top, but RICK SANTORUM won. Just looking at the toplines is deceiving. The final DMR poll is best known - and highly anticipated - not because it predicts the precise margins on caucus day, but because it has a good record at capturing what is often the most important dynamic of the Iowa caucuses: who has the late momentum. Will Haley bounce into second place, and by how much? If he doesn’t hit 50%, his rivals will be able to claim that more voters came out in subzero weather to vote against him than to vote for him.Ģ. ![]() The cold weather - the forecast for Des Moines is a low of -19 degrees and a high of -2 degrees tomorrow - will likely benefit the crawl-over-broken-glass voters that Trump attracts rather than the milquetoast Haley backers.Įxpectations are stratospheric for Trump. And unlike in 2016, Trump has an extraordinarily well-financed and well-organized operation in the state. ![]() The enthusiasm of his supporters is stratospheric. His lead is bigger than any seen in previous final DMR polls. The former president is on track for the biggest victory of any competitive caucus in history. The headline on the Des Moines Register poll is that Haley is in second place, but the real story is Trump’s absolute dominance over his main two rivals. Will Trump be above or below his Iowa polling average of 51% ? THREE BIG QUESTIONS ABOUT IOWA - One day out from the Iowa caucuses, there are three big questions, all driven by the final Des Moines Register poll, which shows DONALD TRUMP at 48%, NIKKI HALEY at 20%, and RON DeSANTIS at 16%:ġ. “I’m convinced the momentum is with Nikki Haley.” Watch the clip “What this race is all about is to try to nominate the strongest possible nominee for November,” Hogan said. HALEY’S KARMA - LARRY HOGAN endorsed NIKKI HALEY today during an appearance on CNN. Donald Trump is charging into the Iowa caucuses with a firm lead in the latest polling. ![]()
0 Comments
Read More
Leave a Reply. |